Bitcoin Block Reward Halving Countdown

Why is it so hard to mine for bitcoin?

Why is it so hard to mine for bitcoin?
Bitcoin mining has become more competitive than ever.
Bitcoin mining difficulty – the measure of how hard it is to earn mining rewards in the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap – has reached a new record high above 7.93 trillion. That’s a seven percent jump from the 7.45 trillion record set during the recent two-week adjustment cycle, which was the highest since October 2018.
Bitcoin is designed to adjust its mining difficulty every 2,016 blocks (approximately 14 days), based on the amount of computing power deployed to the network. This is done to ensure the block production interval at the next period will remain constant at around every 10 minutes. When there are fewer machines racing to solve math problems to earn the next payout of newly created bitcoin, difficulty falls; when there are more computers in the game, it rises.

https://preview.redd.it/s7grcdbkzdn31.png?width=728&format=png&auto=webp&s=4fc30767e70d67539747186fdd5a7d01511c4cbd
Data from Bitcoin Block Explorer - BTCNEWZ.com
Right now the machines are humming furiously. Bitcoin miners across the world have been performing calculations at an average 56.77 quintillion hashes per second (EH/s) over the last 14 days to compete for mining rewards on the world’s first blockchain, according to data from mining pool.
Data further indicates the average bitcoin mining hash rate in the last 24-hour and three-day periods were 59.58 EH/s and 59.70 EH/s, respectively, even higher than the average 56.77 EH/s from May 15 to June 27, or any 14-day data in the network’s history.
Similarly, data from blockchain also shows the aggregate of bitcoin computing power was around 66 EH/s as of June 22, surpassing last year’s record high of 61.86 EH/s tracked by the site, and has more than doubled since December 2018 when the hash rate dropped to as low as 31 EH/s amid bitcoin’s price fall.
Assuming all such additional computing power has come from more widely used equipment such as the AntMiner S9, which performs calculations at an average rate of 14 tera hashes per second (TH/s), that suggests more than 2 million units of mining equipment may have been switched on over the past several months. (1 EH/s equals to 1 million TH/s)

https://preview.redd.it/b681p3plzdn31.png?width=1440&format=png&auto=webp&s=49efa21d8460553aceb87b64a106170b30a4c76a
The increase in capacity is also in line with bitcoin’s price jump over the first half of 2019, which caused the price of second-hand mining equipment to double in China, and also juiced demand for new machines.
Further estimates the bitcoin mining difficulty will jump by another seven percent at the beginning of the next adjustment cycle, which would be the first time for bitcoin mining difficulty to cross the eight trillion threshold.
Delayed plugging in
Such computing interest comes at a time when mining farms in China, especially in the country’s mountainous southwest, have been gradually plugging in equipment as the rainy summer approaches.
According to a report published by blockchain research firm Coinshare, as of earlier this month, 50 percent of the global bitcoin computing power was located in China’s Sichuan province.
However, it’s important to note that this year, the arrival of the rainy season in China’s southwest has been delayed by nearly a month compared to previous years. As a result, some local mining farms were only running less than half of their total capacity in the past month.
Xun Zheng, CEO of mining farm operator Hashage based in Chengdu that owns several facilities across China’s southwestern provinces, said there had been no rain in the area for over 20 days since early May, which was “unusual.”
“In the past years, it usually starts raining continuously throughout May so [hydropower plants] normally will have enough water resources by early June,” he said.
As a result, in early June his firm was only operating at 40 percent of capacity; it can host more than 200,000 ASIC miners. But as the rain has arrived gradually over the past two weeks, the proportion has climbed to over 60 percent.
Mining farms in China previously estimated that the total hash rate this year during the peak of the rainy season around August could break the threshold of 70EH/s. That means another 300,000 units of mining machines could be further activated, assuming all are AntMiner S9s or similar models.
Those waiting to be switched on will also include new capital in the sector such as Shanghai-based Fundamental Labs, a blockchain fund that has invested $44 million on top-of-the-line mining equipment, which will be activated in June.
submitted by alifkhalil469 to BtcNewz [link] [comments]

You have the math, you have the ability, now apply reason, logic, and intuition and you will discover the future turn of this world. Blessings.

I have conducted extensive research into the question, and the have calculated the most appropriate value based on today's metrics and understanding.
Long story short "Empty Block Bonuses" needs to be limited to approximately $50 Million monthly. If more than $100 Million or less than $5 Million, it should be adjusted.
To arrive at this value, issuance of New ETH should be reduced from 5 -> 1, IMMEDIATELY, August 1st. At which point it should be reduced in half every 500,000 Blocks (3 months), approximately or at a minimum 1,000,000 Blocks (6 months).
Regarding the Economics, transaction fees are pegged to $0.25 approximately, while Bonuses are fixed to a % of the Market Cap. Effectively, this means that all Bonuses in excess of $50 Million monthly is wasted, as it creates an unnecessary and undesirous expense with no long term value. It's equivalently the same as burning money.
Prior to February 28th, the most Ethereum had spent on "Block Chain Security Bonuses" in a given month was $13 Million dollars (Feb, 2017) or $104 Million for all of 2016. This is what I call the appropriate cost for block chain security. However, as it is an unlimited dollar figure tied to the market cap (or daily issuance x spot price), Ethereum spent $41 Million in March, $61 Million in April, $177 Million in May, $272 Million in June, and $104 Million in July - keep in mind this is always in addition to the millions in transaction fees, which is the negotiated fee between miners and holders, and thus constantly adjusted to the correct real world values.
Any value about $50 Million monthly is pure waste, IMO, or spending 4x more than at any point during 2016. Likewise, the mathematics and the economics of the code create maximum sustainable or useful values of Market Cap / spot prices. Effectively, in the current system of 5 ETH per block, the maximum sustainable value for Ethereum is approximately $120. With the next change from 5 -> 3 the maximum sustainable value will be $200. However, by reducing the cost from 5 -> 1, Ethereum can sustain a spot price of $600. If Ethereum reached $600 today, Block Chain security expenses would change from what it should be (about $100 Million) to $550 Million monthly, until the price of Ethereum went back down to $120.
However, what you will find is that by changing the rate of Price Deflation from 5 ETH per block to 1 ETH per block, is that Ethereum will become universally sustainable without significant future management involvement, as the rate of Price Deflation will become the lowest or within 1% of the lowest Price Deflationary currency on Earth. Bitcoin has managed this achievement through issuing a guess in 2008 / 2009 as to what the value of block chain will be in 2017. You can likewise time the 'run up' of block chain to periods shortly after where Bitcoin cuts it's expense in half.
Bitcoin guessed in 2009 what the price would be in 2017. Based on that calculus it came up with 4%. Ethereum is guessing in 2017 what the price will be in 2017. It has significant advantage over Bitcoin in this regard. With certainty, we can expect the price to be more than $100 but less than $300. However, would you dare guess what the price will be in 2025? This is effectively what Bitcoin attempted to do.
Bitcoin is currently spending $113 Million monthly on block chain security, LiteCoin $17 Million, and Dash $7 to $14 Million depending on a point of view. The maximum a competing coin has spent in a single month at any point in time is approximately $20 Million, for any coin made after 2009. Bitcoin (and Ethereum) are the only coins to have ever spent more than $20 Million in a single month, with Ethereum spending $273 Million in June, 2017, the most spent by any coin in a single month in the history of block chain technology.
Therefor, based on an extremely sound and reasoned argument, with full appreciation and understanding of the block chain economic systems, I am recommending the following:
To add an issuance reduction, I recommend that for block.number >= METROPOLIS_FORK_BLKNUM:
Let X = 1 ETH (ie. 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 wei) - 2.2% Inflation
Change the block reward to X
If an uncle is included in a block such that block.number - uncle.number = k, the uncle reward is (8-k) * X / 8 (this is the existing pre-Metropolis formula for uncle rewards with X=5)
The nephew reward is X / 32 (this is the existing pre-Metropolis formula for uncle rewards with X=5)
With the following programmed adjustments to future Bonuses:
Let X1 = 0.50 ETH after 500,000 Blocks (11/1/17) - 1.1% Inflation
Let X2 = 0.25 ETH after 500,000 Blocks (2/1/18) - 0.6% Inflation
Let X3 = 0.13 ETH after 833,333 Blocks (7/1/18) - 0.3% Inflation
Let X4 = 0.06 ETH after 1,000,000 Blocks (1/1/19) - 0.15% Inflation
Let X5 = 0.03 ETH after 1,000,000 Blocks (7/1/19) - 0.08% Inflation ... and on going.
On these dates, after appropriately adjusting the market to the corrected economic conditions, you would find the following expense outcomes.
8/1/17 - $100 to $900 Spot Price - Monthly Expenses $17 Million to $155 Million
11/1/17 - $400 to $1,200 Spot Price - Monthly Expense $34 Million to $103 Million
2/1/18 - $600 to $2,400 Spot Price - Monthly Expense $50 Million to $200 Million
7/1/18 - $1,200 to $4,000 Spot Price - Monthly Expense $50 Million to $170 Million
1/1/19 - $4,000 to $12,000 Spot Price - Monthly Expense $41 Million to $124 Million
7/1/19 - $12,000 to $30,000 Spot Price - Monthly Expense $62 Million to $155 Million
While those estimates may seem outlandish, it is the result of creating the most perfect financial system in the history of human existence. Bitcoin perfected the heart beat of the block chain, fixing the time signature regardless to the amount of computer put against it. However, it is unable to eliminate inflation, as it was set in stone in 2009.
By establishing 1 ETH per block on August 1st, Ethereum will become the least inflationary, most stable asset in human existence. By Feb 2018, the rate of inflation can be set to less than 1%, vs 11% today. Put another way, today every 1 in 9 Ethereum purchasers of average $5,000 US must recruit another user to purchase $5,000 ETH each year to maintain Spot price stability, and cover the costs of block chain security. By July 2018, that will go down to 1 in 400 Ethereum users, and get cut in half every 6 months after that.
Effectively making the rate of inflation in Metropolis significantly below the rate of birth and GDP, and significantly lower than any other financial system. Bitcoin will be stuck at 4% until 2019 and US Dollar is speculated to be 1 to 3%, while Ethereum will be 0.3%.
Following the plan above, by July 2018, the market cap of Ethereum will be over $1 Trillion dollars, effectively making it the first world currency in the history of Earth.
If Bitcoin was to attempt to achieve a similar valuation, it's monthly expenses would necessarily increase from $110 Million to $3.3 Billion, a month. Effectively this stagnates the future growth of Bitcoin, as it is cheaper to create and market an alternative coin than it is to waste over $30 Billion annually for an expense that cost $1 Billion annually just 1 year previous - Put another way, Bitcoin would need to recruit over 6,000,000 new customers of $5,000 annually to sustain the expense, where as under my model Ethereum would need to recruit 151,000 customers annually to sustain a spot price of $12,000 by July 2019 with a $1 Trillion dollar valuation. Currently Ethereum is recruiting approximately 300,000 new customers a year.
This means to maintain stability under the 5 ETH system, at $150 Spot Price, they need 315,000 New customers annually. Beginning August 1st, at 1 ETH, this goes down to 63,000 annually. As the natural rate is closer to 300,000, this unavoidable escalates the price, which escalates the expense, until it reaches equilibrium around $750, which I speculate would occur by 10/31/17. With the same rate of new customer acquisition as is today, we can achieve a price of $750, simply by controlling expenses, while maintain an expense level which will be the highest on the market, aside 2009's Bitcoin.
Ethereum can set itself on an unstoppable path to become the global currency by establishing 1 ETH per block on August 1st. You have the math, you have the ability, now apply reason, logic, and intuition and you will discover the future turn of this world. Blessings.
You can double check my work here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1onjAoS1oBEE4B15i2u_VuXPAG4556v-nPfe7qktrEJU/edit?usp=sharing
Please make a copy, as it is an editable document which I have backed up in case it is changed down the road, but the document you view may not be the document as intended if others make malicious changes. Thank you for the understanding.
Link to comment within the EIP 649 board:
https://github.com/ethereum/EIPs/pull/669#issuecomment-315765514
submitted by kybarnet to ethtrader [link] [comments]

Bitcoin explained in plain English (so that you can explain this voodoo magic money to your mom)

Bitcoin explained in plain English
Like Paypal and Visa, Bitcoin is a system that can send money digitally. The innovation that sets Bitcoin apart is that it isn’t controlled or operated by a single company. Instead of having a company like Visa run the system, anybody can join the Bitcoin network and participate in the record keeping that keeps Bitcoin running. Nobody owns the Bitcoin software or the Bitcoin network. If an oppressive government wants to shut down Bitcoin, it can’t simply go after a single company. An oppressive government would (in theory) have to go after everybody running Bitcoin server software on their computer to shut it down.
In practice, the decentralization doesn’t actually work. Most people buy Bitcoins through exchanges run by private companies, which are subject to government-imposed laws and regulations. While Bitcoin’s innovation is interesting, it doesn’t actually do anything useful in the real world. However, very few people actually understand Bitcoin. So, journalists and cryptocurrency fanatics can make up fancy stories about how Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies will change the world.
What Bitcoin is
Bitcoin was originally designed to be a “Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System“. Think of other peer-to-peer systems like Napster or BitTorrent, except that users can exchange Bitcoins instead of files. Instead of having a single set of records controlled by one company, the set of records is copied to all the volunteer record keepers in the Bitcoin network. There can be hundreds or thousands of copies of the Bitcoin ledger distributed around the world. Changes to the ledger (from people sending Bitcoin to one another) are distributed throughout the network and each participant duplicates the record-keeping process on their copy of the ledger. This is the “distributed ledger” that everybody keeps talking about.
All of this means that the Bitcoin network can run by itself. Anybody can join the network and help keep it running.
Bitcoin in the real world
Unfortunately the key benefit to Bitcoin (the “decentralization” everybody keeps talking about) doesn’t actually pan out in the real world. Most people get Bitcoins by buying them via a centralized exchange, which are all private companies that can be shut down or bullied by the government. As all developed countries have laws against money laundering, banks will enforce these laws and will refuse to do business with exchanges that may be enabling questionable activities like online gambling with Bitcoins. Cryptocurrencies are effectively regulated by governments around the world. The only practical alternative to exchanges is to trade Bitcoins in person. However, this defeats the main benefit of digital money as face-to-face transactions are inconvenient. It’s unlikely that a system that involves trading paper money for Bitcoins will revolutionize the world.
Currently, the trend is that banks and credit card companies have been cutting off access to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Banks have to comply with anti-money laundering regulations so that they don’t intentionally or unintentionally help criminals profit from illegal activities. A key part of fighting money laundering is knowing who your customers actually are. Criminals are less likely to use a bank as part of their illegal activities (e.g. to trade stolen Bitcoins for cash) if the bank knows their true identity. However, Bitcoin was designed to be anonymous as stated by its inventor’s white paper. (Bitcoin doesn’t fully succeed in allowing for anonymous payments. However, the anonymity that it does offer is enough to be problematic.) Bitcoin’s design makes it difficult for banks to obey the law if they are to allow access to Bitcoin exchanges. This is one of the many reasons why Bitcoin is unlikely to become a mainstream payment method for goods and services.
You can safely ignore the hype
If somebody tries to explain Bitcoin to you and you don’t understand it, the problem isn’t you. The person explaining Bitcoin likely has some misguided understanding of Bitcoin because there are certain things that they want to believe. Some people want to look smart by being early believers in new technology that they don’t understand. Some journalists want to write clickbait stories. Some people want to believe in get-rich-quick schemes. Some people are getting rich quick through cryptocurrency-related scams. Whatever the case is, I wouldn’t worry about it. You aren’t missing out on a revolutionary new technology. Bitcoin’s only innovation is interesting but useless in the real world.
Appendix A: What Bitcoin mining is (and why everybody is saying it’s bad for the environment)
The problem with a set of records delivered over the Internet is that you don’t know if some stranger on the Internet has nefariously tampered with the version that they sent you. It is possible for somebody to cheat the system by spending Bitcoins and then distributing a copy of the ledger that leaves out their spending, allowing them to spend their Bitcoins again. Other users somehow have to figure out which version of history is correct. To prevent shenanigans, each node on the Bitcoin network will determine trust based on “proof of work“. Trust will go to the side that has spent/wasted the most computing power to back up their version of events. The theory is that the honest users will always control more computing power than dishonest users.
To perform proof of work, Bitcoin “miners” do a set of very difficult mathematical calculations to try to find results with a certain number of zeroes in it. It’s basically computers competing over their ability to produce special numbers with a really long series of zeroes. Record keepers in the Bitcoin network (“nodes”) will trust the side that has wasted the most computing power. Because the math needed to find the special numbers is much harder than the math needed to verify the numbers (sort of like how Sudoku puzzles are harder to solve than to check), participants can easily verify which side wasted the most computing power. This is the key idea behind “blockchain“, the technology that tries to solve the problem of not being able to trust what strangers send you over the Internet. Honest record keepers will continue to add valid pages (blocks) to the Bitcoin journal. If the honest side controls more computing power, they will produce a longer chain of valid pages (blocks) than dishonest record keepers. Eventually, the honest record keepers’ version of events will be considered the authoritative one.
This system works as long as honest users throw more computing power at the problem than dishonest users. A dishonest user cannot pass off a bogus version of events (such as one that omits their spending) unless that user has more computing power than all of the honest users combined. To make attacks from dishonest users very difficult, the Bitcoin system provides incentives to its users to maintain a large standing army of computers that are ready to waste more computing power than people trying to cheat the system. Bitcoins are given out to users who devote computing power towards the Bitcoin cause. This is called Bitcoin “mining”, as the miners exert effort and are rewarded with digital “gold”. The creation of new Bitcoins is part of Bitcoin’s design.
If Bitcoin’s price averages $10,000, Bitcoin miners will receive $6.57 billion dollars worth of newly-printed Bitcoins in 2018 (1800 Bitcoins will be created every day in 2018). Bitcoin miners will also receive transaction fees from people who pay extra to have their transactions added to the ledger first (their transactions will be confirmed first). This might sound crazy but Bitcoin mining is on track to being a multi-billion dollar industry. Various companies will fight over their share of newly-printed Bitcoins. Competition will cause them to use a lot of electricity since electricity is the main ingredient needed to mine Bitcoins. Digiconomist has a webpage that estimates Bitcoin’s power consumption, which is currently about 1.3% of the United State’s energy consumption- that’s the same as millions of Americans. Bitcoin mining will consume as much energy as entire countries like Bangladesh.
While Bitcoin mining is one way to get Bitcoins, it is very expensive for most people compared to buying Bitcoins on an exchange. This is because Bitcoin mining benefits from scale. Big companies such as Bitmain will spend millions of dollars on designing computers that do one thing and one thing only: mine Bitcoins. Think of a calculator: it is a computer that does only one thing. Because it is designed for only one task, it does it very well. A calculator is incredibly energy efficient and cheap compared to your smartphone or laptop computer. Similarly, a computer that is designed specifically for mining Bitcoins does it more cost-effectively than everyday computers. Without millions of dollars spent designing special computers, access to very cheap electricity, and large data centers, normal citizens can’t compete against Bitcoin mining juggernauts. These companies drive up the cost of mining Bitcoins (Bitcoin is designed so that fewer Bitcoins are produced if more computing power is spent on mining), pushing out the small fish. You will likely lose money if you try to mine Bitcoin on your home computer.
Appendix B: Buzzwords and technobabble explained
ICO: Initial coin offering, or “it’s a con offering”. Generally speaking, these are investment scams where investors exchange real money for fake money (or a stake in a fake business or Ponzi scheme).
Immutable: can’t be changed. In theory, Bitcoin is designed so that the ledger can’t be changed. In the past, the ledger has been changed by the Bitcoin community banding together to fix bugs. One such bug allowed a hacker to give him or herself 184 billion Bitcoins.
Trustless: This refers to a trust problem that only decentralized systems have; centralized systems don’t have this problem. For Bitcoin specifically, the problem is this: some stranger on the Internet sent me a journal of all Bitcoin transactions and I don’t know if I should trust it. Bitcoin’s key innovative technology, the blockchain, attempts to solve that problem so that decentralization can work.
Blockchain: a journal of all (Bitcoin) transactions since the very beginning. Transactions are grouped together into chunks called blocks, which form the ‘pages’ of the journal. Miners solve difficult math puzzles so that they can attach special numbers to each block, proving that they spent a lot of computing power. A series (or chain) of blocks with the most computing power spent on ‘proving’ that chain will become the authoritative blockchain. This system works as long as the honest users waste more computer power and electricity than dishonest users.
Decentralization: a system that works without a trusted central authority.
Double spending: Cheating the system to spend the same Bitcoin two or more times, ultimately resulting in spending Bitcoins that you don’t have.
Secure: An adjective that describes systems other than Bitcoin. For starters, Bitcoin was hacked to create 184 billion Bitcoins. When the Mt. Gox exchange was hacked, at least 5% of all Bitcoins at the time (at least 650,000) were stolen. Many people also lose Bitcoins due to their computer being hacked, being tricked into giving away their passwords or identity, or from malicious browser add-ons. Bitcoin also has outstanding security issues that haven’t been fixed. If a single party controls 51% of the world’s Bitcoin mining power, that mining power can be used to disrupt the Bitcoin network. Currently, more than 51% of the world’s mining power is controlled by Chinese companies.
submitted by glennchan to Buttcoin [link] [comments]

Why so much speculation

Short answer
If people are incapable of estimating the correct number logically, the only method to the answer is by genetic algorithm where cloud wisdom hopefuly takes time to solve and volatility is inevitable.
Long answer
Believe it or not, the valuation of a currency-purpose asset is in fact much easier than the valuation of a stock. To be a currency-purpose asset, a somewhat universal valuation opinion must be among the mass. For a stock, on the contrary, one needs to evaluate many factors such as marketing/product/… and people have different opinions about the possible gain of a stock.
Every asset has a production cost, the piece of paper of stock certificate has little production cost. For currency-purpose asset, the production cost is thought to be independent of W-questions such as "who produces this asset", "where is this asset produced", "how many sale a producer has done", …etc. It is this property that the so-called universal opinion is formed. Money is also supposed not to have capital gain like stocks such as "I will have a generous dividend next year", so there is indeed not a "calculate the present value of all future gain by having a stock" but a "global understanding of the cost to fake/rollback/cheat a trust" for currency-purpose asset.
Let
Story 1 Assume all miners calculate the production cost in the coming 8 years and users are not investors. Let's express price in real term so that weird fiat monetary policy has nothing to do with the following argument we shall focus on.
The equation for cost of the production is 0 = KI + sum(KT - ( F+C(t, t+2)) * P, from t to t+2)
Therefore P = K * (T + I/210000 * 2 )/(F + C(2.41, 4.41)). Note that C(2.41, 4.41)=7.4515 so the miner will sell at least at this price. A user, as a non-investor who never cares P, may buy the coin from the miner and sell the coin for a merchant service/goods who will adjust the service bitcoin-nominated price with P accordingly. For your curiosity, by current data, the P by Story 1 is 3.49444E+11 Joule.
Is the Story 1 reallistic ? Not at all.
What about a miner who is thinking to run the business till t1=3 only. Then C(2.41, 3)=12.5 and this miner can undercut other miners in Story 1. Every users, as non-investors, do not care any bit about P because the user will always need to commit the same real-term service price from the merchant. Being undercut means death, so all the miners will split the pricing logic so that two P numbers, one for time 2.41 to 3, the other for 3 to 4.41; for your curiosity, C(3, 4.41) = 5.3413
Story 2 As the miners competition settled down, the P is not constant any more; there will be two P numbers, one, being lower, for time 2.41 to 3, the other, being higher, for 3 to 4.41.
Is the Story 2 reallistic ? Not at all.
What about a user who starts noticing that the P will increase and being investors is a good deal. While this user may observe the increasing of P empirically but never logically understanding, knowing nothing about math and miners' plan, this user will speculate between market price of P; he might buy at 5000 and see it explode at 10000 and take profit at 6000 (in USD term) and has no idea the 5000 may be much lower than the correct number. Should the P is pricing at the correct number so that there is no room between the two P, speculators are gone and people are comfortable the stable price with store-of-value and media-of-exchange.
Is the Story 2 realistic ? Not at all.
What about a hobby miner wants to be investor too and starts mining from time 2.41 to 3 and never sell all the coins for users but only pay partially little for the electricity while price bullish and keep the rest coins as investment for himself after time 3 ?
Story 3 Being also speculation. While other users investors may increase the volatility (mainly because being without fundamental knowledge but rather TA or market-sentiment orientated traders), this move will shrink the room between the two P and therefore decrease the volatility of P. So the ratio of time 2.41-to-3 miners to time 2.41-to-4.41 miners increases up to the two P are equal then no more new miners of such plan.
Is the Story 3 realistic ? Not at all.
What about there are miners/investors for all possible time frame t0 to t1 in the future ?
Let
Story 4 Therefore, the only setting where no arbitrage for miners and investors is such that P=KT/F and the graph of (Kt + K ) / K is like this.
We know T and F and the ratio of Kt/K, but what is exactly K ?
No one really knows. K could be low or high, one can only guess by observation. We know the difficulty is proportional to hash rate and hash rate is proportional to Kt and K. So you can see the graph of difficulty to have a guess of K. Should the two graph looks similar, we know people are finally logical and feel delight. By the difficulty graph and miners' time frame to amortize fixed cost so that it can be averaged out, taking the current global hash as K and updating it as time goes by may be a good guess. For your curiosity, currently KT/F is 2.13007E+12 Joule.
BUT. It is not logical to assume people are all logical. If people are never logical and never investors, a graph of KT/( F + C(t, t+1) ) which is increasing till KT/F shall resemble the graph of P. If some people are logical and some are not, the empirical graph will be hysterical around and between.
I tend not to comment about pricing in public. But since I know wall street and I know what wall street knows, feeling sad about the mass, bear me. I thought these information could leak to the mass if there were future contracts after each halving date, but no luck for such contracts.
Credit: not me. I knew this long after someone knew it.
submitted by LucSr to BitcoinDiscussion [link] [comments]

Why the price of DOGE is falling and will continue to. SUCH MAFFS. SO LOGIC. WOW.

TLDR; Dogecoin is one of the most profitable coins to mine, so people are mining and dumping for profit. Will probably still drop by ~10-25%. Woof. http://i.imgur.com/NRVOtRI.jpg
A lot of people are posting about the price of Dogecoin and are concerned with its price. There is speculation that is misleading and not backed up by much theory. It’s not just as simple as supply and demand, panic selling or the line of best fit on a graph. Let’s look at the maths and see why the coin is dropping so rapidly and why now.
MAFFS
The difficulty of mining a block of DOGE currently ranged from 300-400 [1], the higher this goes the less coin you will mine. To make things simple let’s run an example: Assume you have 1000kHash of digging power; with that you could mine at the current difficulty level approx. 30,000 DOGE a day [2]! The value of Dogecoin is tightly tied to Bitcoin, we first convert it to BTC and sell that. The price for a single DOGE is roughly 0.00000040 BTC [3] and a BTC is worth around $850 [4]. In our 24 hours of work we earn $10.20 (0.00000040 * 30000 * 850). Wow. Such pawfit.
Now compare this to the ‘standard’ of scrypt mining, Litecoin. For the same time and strength of your digging you would yield around $8.50. If you were only interested in profit you would mine DOGE and sell it because it made you the most profit for your hashrate. A lot of people are doing this, including multicoin pools, they mine the most profitable coin and convert it to BTC. It’s simply efficient. This means that there is a huge dump of coin on the market and the price will fall.
SPECULATION
When will the coin stop dropping in price? When it is no longer the most profitable coin, so probably around 0.00000030 to 0.00000035 BTC. At this price the profitability is too low to reward these types of miners. Alternatively, if the difficulty was to increase then the amount of coins earned (EDIT: coins per person, overall supply per time is constant! More miners = lower split per miner) would be reduced and the profit margins would also decrease, I’d estimate the difficulty would need to be around 450 to 500 to balance out. The difficulty increases if more people mine the coin, and at this point that will be depending on popularity.
Sure a few people are panic selling but comparatively this is a drop in the ocean and even so it will just help the coin reach its stable price a little faster. Anybody who wants to see the coin succeed is already doing what they need to, they are not concerned with the price, remember to have fun!
Another point to note is that over the last few days the price of BTC has risen, and so even if the price of DOGE was stable the exchange ratio for DOGE->BTC would still show a fall – this is slightly misleading and the fall in price is not as hard as it seems!
So what can you do? Wait. The price will level out and over time the difficulty should increase with popularity and in around 1-2 months the reward will halve, I'd expect a big peak in price around that time. The coin is young and popular; it needs to learn the Earth before it can go to the Moon.
Sources: [1]http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/v2/coins/show/doge [2] http://www.coinwarz.com/calculators/dogecoin-mining-calculator [3]https://www.cryptsy.com/markets/view/132 [4]http://bitcoinity.org/markets/mtgox/USD 
submitted by Piedo_Bear to dogecoin [link] [comments]

You have the math, you have the ability, now apply reason, logic, and intuition and you will discover the future turn of this world. Blessings. - ETH EIP 649 / 669 Discussion

I have conducted extensive research into the question, and the have calculated the most appropriate value based on today's metrics and understanding.
Long story short "Empty Block Bonuses" needs to be limited to approximately $50 Million monthly. If more than $100 Million or less than $5 Million, it should be adjusted.
To arrive at this value, issuance of New ETH should be reduced from 5 -> 1, IMMEDIATELY, August 1st. At which point it should be reduced in half every 500,000 Blocks (3 months), approximately or at a minimum 1,000,000 Blocks (6 months).
Regarding the Economics, transaction fees are pegged to $0.25 approximately, while Bonuses are fixed to a % of the Market Cap. Effectively, this means that all Bonuses in excess of $50 Million monthly is wasted, as it creates an unnecessary and undesirous expense with no long term value. It's equivalently the same as burning money.
Prior to February 28th, the most Ethereum had spent on "Block Chain Security Bonuses" in a given month was $13 Million dollars (Feb, 2017) or $104 Million for all of 2016. This is what I call the appropriate cost for block chain security. However, as it is an unlimited dollar figure tied to the market cap (or daily issuance x spot price), Ethereum spent $41 Million in March, $61 Million in April, $177 Million in May, $272 Million in June, and $104 Million in July - keep in mind this is always in addition to the millions in transaction fees, which is the negotiated fee between miners and holders, and thus constantly adjusted to the correct real world values.
Any value about $50 Million monthly is pure waste, IMO, or spending 4x more than at any point during 2016. Likewise, the mathematics and the economics of the code create maximum sustainable or useful values of Market Cap / spot prices. Effectively, in the current system of 5 ETH per block, the maximum sustainable value for Ethereum is approximately $120. With the next change from 5 -> 3 the maximum sustainable value will be $200. However, by reducing the cost from 5 -> 1, Ethereum can sustain a spot price of $600. If Ethereum reached $600 today, Block Chain security expenses would change from what it should be (about $100 Million) to $550 Million monthly, until the price of Ethereum went back down to $120.
However, what you will find is that by changing the rate of Price Deflation from 5 ETH per block to 1 ETH per block, is that Ethereum will become universally sustainable without significant future management involvement, as the rate of Price Deflation will become the lowest or within 1% of the lowest Price Deflationary currency on Earth. Bitcoin has managed this achievement through issuing a guess in 2008 / 2009 as to what the value of block chain will be in 2017. You can likewise time the 'run up' of block chain to periods shortly after where Bitcoin cuts it's expense in half.
Bitcoin guessed in 2009 what the price would be in 2017. Based on that calculus it came up with 4%. Ethereum is guessing in 2017 what the price will be in 2017. It has significant advantage over Bitcoin in this regard. With certainty, we can expect the price to be more than $100 but less than $300. However, would you dare guess what the price will be in 2025? This is effectively what Bitcoin attempted to do.
Bitcoin is currently spending $113 Million monthly on block chain security, LiteCoin $17 Million, and Dash $7 to $14 Million depending on a point of view. The maximum a competing coin has spent in a single month at any point in time is approximately $20 Million, for any coin made after 2009. Bitcoin (and Ethereum) are the only coins to have ever spent more than $20 Million in a single month, with Ethereum spending $273 Million in June, 2017, the most spent by any coin in a single month in the history of block chain technology.
Therefor, based on an extremely sound and reasoned argument, with full appreciation and understanding of the block chain economic systems, I am recommending the following:
To add an issuance reduction, I recommend that for block.number >= METROPOLIS_FORK_BLKNUM:
Let X = 1 ETH (ie. 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 wei) - 2.2% Inflation
Change the block reward to X
If an uncle is included in a block such that block.number - uncle.number = k, the uncle reward is (8-k) * X / 8 (this is the existing pre-Metropolis formula for uncle rewards with X=5)
The nephew reward is X / 32 (this is the existing pre-Metropolis formula for uncle rewards with X=5)
With the following programmed adjustments to future Bonuses:
Let X1 = 0.50 ETH after 500,000 Blocks (11/1/17) - 1.1% Inflation
Let X2 = 0.25 ETH after 500,000 Blocks (2/1/18) - 0.6% Inflation
Let X3 = 0.13 ETH after 833,333 Blocks (7/1/18) - 0.3% Inflation
Let X4 = 0.06 ETH after 1,000,000 Blocks (1/1/19) - 0.15% Inflation
Let X5 = 0.03 ETH after 1,000,000 Blocks (7/1/19) - 0.08% Inflation ... and on going.
On these dates, after appropriately adjusting the market to the corrected economic conditions, you would find the following expense outcomes.
8/1/17 - $100 to $900 Spot Price - Monthly Expenses $17 Million to $155 Million
11/1/17 - $400 to $1,200 Spot Price - Monthly Expense $34 Million to $103 Million
2/1/18 - $600 to $2,400 Spot Price - Monthly Expense $50 Million to $200 Million
7/1/18 - $1,200 to $4,000 Spot Price - Monthly Expense $50 Million to $170 Million
1/1/19 - $4,000 to $12,000 Spot Price - Monthly Expense $41 Million to $124 Million
7/1/19 - $12,000 to $30,000 Spot Price - Monthly Expense $62 Million to $155 Million
While those estimates may seem outlandish, it is the result of creating the most perfect financial system in the history of human existence. Bitcoin perfected the heart beat of the block chain, fixing the time signature regardless to the amount of computer put against it. However, it is unable to eliminate inflation, as it was set in stone in 2009.
By establishing 1 ETH per block on August 1st, Ethereum will become the least inflationary, most stable asset in human existence. By Feb 2018, the rate of inflation can be set to less than 1%, vs 11% today. Put another way, today every 1 in 9 Ethereum purchasers of average $5,000 US must recruit another user to purchase $5,000 ETH each year to maintain Spot price stability, and cover the costs of block chain security. By July 2018, that will go down to 1 in 400 Ethereum users, and get cut in half every 6 months after that.
Effectively making the rate of inflation in Metropolis significantly below the rate of birth and GDP, and significantly lower than any other financial system. Bitcoin will be stuck at 4% until 2019 and US Dollar is speculated to be 1 to 3%, while Ethereum will be 0.3%.
Following the plan above, by July 2018, the market cap of Ethereum will be over $1 Trillion dollars, effectively making it the first world currency in the history of Earth.
If Bitcoin was to attempt to achieve a similar valuation, it's monthly expenses would necessarily increase from $110 Million to $3.3 Billion, a month. Effectively this stagnates the future growth of Bitcoin, as it is cheaper to create and market an alternative coin than it is to waste over $30 Billion annually for an expense that cost $1 Billion annually just 1 year previous - Put another way, Bitcoin would need to recruit over 6,000,000 new customers of $5,000 annually to sustain the expense, where as under my model Ethereum would need to recruit 151,000 customers annually to sustain a spot price of $12,000 by July 2019 with a $1 Trillion dollar valuation. Currently Ethereum is recruiting approximately 300,000 new customers a year.
This means to maintain stability under the 5 ETH system, at $150 Spot Price, they need 315,000 New customers annually. Beginning August 1st, at 1 ETH, this goes down to 63,000 annually. As the natural rate is closer to 300,000, this unavoidable escalates the price, which escalates the expense, until it reaches equilibrium around $750, which I speculate would occur by 10/31/17. With the same rate of new customer acquisition as is today, we can achieve a price of $750, simply by controlling expenses, while maintain an expense level which will be the highest on the market, aside 2009's Bitcoin.
Ethereum can set itself on an unstoppable path to become the global currency by establishing 1 ETH per block on August 1st. You have the math, you have the ability, now apply reason, logic, and intuition and you will discover the future turn of this world. Blessings.
You can double check my work here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1onjAoS1oBEE4B15i2u_VuXPAG4556v-nPfe7qktrEJU/edit?usp=sharing
Please make a copy, as it is an editable document which I have backed up in case it is changed down the road, but the document you view may not be the document as intended if others make malicious changes. Thank you for the understanding.
Link to comment within the EIP 649 board:
https://github.com/ethereum/EIPs/pull/669#issuecomment-315765514
submitted by kybarnet to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

At what price will Bitcoin fail to function? My estimate: ~$100.

I'll begin with my conclusions:
If the Bitcoin network consisted solely of 'Titanium ASIC' miners, the most powerful and energy efficient mining machine I know of, then the price point at which electricity costs begins to exceed rewards is $71/BTC (based on yesterday's network figures; more on that later). More realistically though, most miners aren't running highly efficient Titanium ASICs, hence I estimate ~$100/BTC as the turning point.
I say 'fail to function' in my title, because who will continue to mine at a pure loss? It would be irrational - the rational action would be turn off the machine until the value of the rewards increases. Note: This is not the same as sunk costs in buying hardware - because in that case even if you never get back how much you paid, you're still making something.
Perhaps, you might counter, Bitcoin enthusiasts will continue to mine at a loss. Well consider this: To sustain just 1% of the current network hash rate, you would require 559 Titanium ASICs costing over one million dollars in yearly electricity cost (at $0.10/kWh) - and that's a best case scenario.
Let's assume that's the case - you have Bitcoin Enthusiasts contributing the equivalent of 559 Titanium ASICs hashing power for free out of their pocket. That's a 99% drop in hash rate. The time to a difficulty retarget is 2016 blocks, or at 10minutes/block that's 2 weeks. But if the hash rate were to drop by 99% within that two week period, then the block time would balloon out to 16.66 hours - making the block retarget ETA up to 3.8 years!
If transactions took 16.66 hours just to get a single confirmation (if they had first priority), then how would use of Bitcoin remain practically feasible? Would people still have confidence in the system and the developers for allowing this to happen? How difficult or costly would it be to launch a 51% attack?
Now, on to the calculations, and a few less optimistic alternate scenarios:
Network hash rate at time of calculation: 335,365,290.09 GH/s
335,365,290.09 GH/s / 6000GH/s = 55894.215 'Titanium ASIC' miners
55894.215 x $5.28 daily electricity cost (At $0.10/kWh) = $295121.4552/day in electricity costs
= $1776.87709485/block (avg. time of 8.67 minutes)
$1776.87709485 / 25BTC block reward = $71.04/BTC = break even point.
The above does not account for pool fees or transaction fee revenue or more importantly variance in kWh rates ($0.10/kWh is nonetheless pretty low worldwide), and hardware cost is irrelevant to this calculation.
Without doing all the math again, here's some other popular mining machines for comparison:
$113.07 (SP35 Yukon)
$193.84 (CoinTerra TerraMiner IV)
$385.89 (Antminer S1)
I've also just seen the 'Antminer S4' mentioned in /Bitcoin, so just for comparison a Titanium ASIC is almost twice as energy efficient as an Antiminer S4 (2200W vs. 4200W for 6TH/s) - it's less efficient than the SP35 Yukon.
If I've made any miscalculations here or have left anything important out, feel free to correct me.
submitted by Josh_Garza to Buttcoin [link] [comments]

Ever wonder what those numbers mean? The relationship between difficulty, shares, hashrate, etc. explained.

After being confused for a long time myself, I went and crunched some figures, and found out where all those numbers came from. To save fellow shibes from having to do the same, I'm making this guide.
First of all, what is difficulty? It is a number d such that the expected number of hashes required to find a block is d * 232. That is to say, the individual probability of each hash finding a block is 1 / (d * 232 ). (You can read up on how a geometric distribution based on a Bernoulli random variable of probability p has a mean of 1/p.) So if the difficulty is 1, then a valid hash would require 32 binary zeros at the beginning (usually represented as 8 zeros in hex). If the difficulty is 1024, then 32 + 10 = 42 binary zeros are required. For a difficulty that's not a power of two, you're going to have an odd mix (e.g. the first digits of the hex must be less than 000000000c8.)
Now how is difficulty calculated? For Dogecoin, difficulty is recalibrated every 240 blocks. It is adjusted so that a block would be found every minute, on average. Example: The average hashrate was 100 GH/s over the last 240 blocks. We want a block found every 60 seconds, or every 1011 * 60 = 6 x 1012 hashes. So d = 6 x 1012 / 232 = 1397, and the difficulty will be set to 1397.
The pool difficulty (also known as share difficulty) is a closely related concept. It is up to the pool operator, but almost all define it as being difficulty * 216. That is, pool difficulty is a number d' such that the expected number of hashes required to find a share on the pool is d' * 216 (since 32 - 16 = 16). It is basically there for notational convenience, because no one wants to talk about mining at a difficulty of 0.000244 (translated to pool difficulty, that would be 16), just like how people use kilodoge or millibitcoin.
What about a share? Pool operators may vary, but usually a share is defined as a valid hash at pool difficulty 16. Pools may set a pool difficulty that everyone mines at, automatically adjust pool difficulty for each individual miner depending on their hashrate (called vardiff), or allow users to set their own difficulty. They might even create different strata with different pool difficulty levels. A share at a higher pool difficulty is harder to find but worth more. Basically, if you're currently mining at pool difficulty 16 and switch to 32, you'll mine shares half as often but every share you mine is worth two shares. (Unfortunately, the definition of "share" appears to be overloaded - it can mean either each thing a miner submits to a pool or its equivalent for a pool difficulty of 16. It's like how a "standard drink" is 0.6 oz alcohol - if you had a 24 oz beer at 5% ABV, you could say you had a drink, but technically you had two drinks in terms of alcohol content.)
A round is the period of time since the last block was found by a pool to the next time a block is found by the pool. Round shares are shares (i.e. equivalent shares for difficulty 16) that have been found by pool miners. Estimated shares is an estimate of how many shares it will take for a pool to find a block. This number is the same for each pool regardless of hashrate, and only depends on the current difficulty. It is equal to d * 212. Why? Note that a share at pool difficulty 16 is 16 times as difficult as a share at pool difficulty 1, and pool difficulty 1 is 216 times easier than difficulty 1, so the overall effect is 216 / 16. (PPS only: The baseline PPS rate is the amount a miner is paid for each share at difficulty 1; pools PPS rate is the amount a miner is paid for each share at difficulty 16. Pools PPS rate is calculated by dividing the block reward by the estimated shares. So for Dogecoin currently, you divide 500,000 by 5,645,699 to get pools PPS rate 0.088563.)
The Bitcoin wiki has a page on difficulty, but it's somewhat technical and doesn't really talk about mining pools, so I created this post because I couldn't find anything better on Google and ended up using a bit of math and common sense to figure these things out. Though I do recommend reading it for the technically inclined.
For other things like Prop, PPLNS, PPS, etc. there are many existing well-written resources, so I'm saving my breath. This page lists pretty much every single pool structure you might encounter. PPLNS (basic guide, advanced) is probably the most common but also somewhat difficult to understand.
submitted by tony_1337 to dogecoin [link] [comments]

How much Electrical Power does the Bitcoin Network Use?

Bitcoin mining is super important. It keeps our favorite cryptocurrency going. Mining is the process of verifying the bitcoin transactions and adding them to the public ledger, and being rewarded for doing the same. It involves solving complex cryptographic puzzles which are highly computation intensive. Anyone can become a miner, provided that you have access to the Internet and the hardware required to do the difficult calculations. Bitcoin Mining Bitcoins are mined in groups called “blocks”. The reward for mining gets halved for every 210,000 blocks mined. When bitcoin came out in 2009, the reward for mining a block was around 50 BTC. Today, the reward for mining a block is 12.5 BTC. Currently, there are about 16,791,100 bitcoins in circulation, and the maximum number of bitcoins that can ever be produced has been capped at 21 million. On an average, around 1,800 bitcoins are mined per day. (For real-time figures, checkout bitcoinblockhalf.) More the number of active mining nodes (higher hashrate), greater the difficulty level of mining additional ones. As a result, computations get complex, and a lot of hardware is required for doing the same. Now, this hardware would understandably consume a lot of energy to run. This consumption would be pretty significant, you’d think. Let’s do the math and find out.
To calculate the electrical energy used to power the bitcoin network, one needs to look at the number of sums that are conducted every second for solving the cryptographic puzzles. Then, one needs to find out the amount of electrical energy needed to solve each sum. The “sums” being talked about here are nothing but “hashes”. A miner has to come up with a 64-digit hexadecimal number (A hash) that is less than or equal to the target hash. Not only that, he/she has to be the first one to do it. To mine successfully, you need to have a high hashrate and need a lot of computing power. Your best bet would be to use either a graphics processing unit miner (GPU) or an application-specific integrated circuit miner (ASIC). According to a recently released estimate by Digiconomist, Bitcoin mining consumes about 30.14 TeraWatt Hours of energy annually. This level of consumption is actually higher than more than 159 countries. About 381,000 bitcoin transactions are processed in a day. In a year, therefore, a bitcoin transaction would consume an average of 200–210 KiloWatt Hours of energy. An Indian household consumes an average of 75 KiloWatt Hours of energy in a month. A single bitcoin transaction, therefore, consumes as much energy as a household does in 3 whole months! The Power of Bitcoin One has to agree that running the bitcoin network requires a lot of power. In fact, with the numbers we’re crunching, bitcoin transactions are consuming more energy than half the planet! With bitcoin gaining immense popularity, the number of miners that join the race keeps increasing. As it gets harder and harder to mine bitcoins, the graph of power needed to do so continues to shoot up. In some places, this power drain has been putting a strain on the local power grids. For example in Venezuela, mining operations have adverse effects on the country’s existing electricity shortage problem. On the other hand, one needs to remember that the bitcoin is a volatile currency. Different numerical figures associated with it constantly fluctuate every day. This leads us along a path which has an unforeseeable future
submitted by kailashjk to BitcoinMining [link] [comments]

intro to bitcoin and other cryptos (need help in designing class)

I have become the defacto "Bitcoin expert" in my little down of 50,000 people because I'm the only one talking about it (not because I'm an expert by any means). They have asked me to teach an intro class on bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. I'm charging $5 for the class and giving them $5 back in a crypto currency (was going to be BTC until I saw the transaction times and fees we're dealing with right now). I figured I'd give the people in the front row $25, they pass back $20, they pass back $15, etc until everyone has $5 left. A quick lesson on how to transact using your phone or laptop.
The class will be two hours long plus an hour Q&A session at the end so I'm trying to cover the basics and a few intermediate ideas so should they come across them (like segwit, etc) they at least have a passing knowledge. I will NOT give any investment advice and I will not get complicated/technical.
I've been working on this syllabus for the last two days and would appreciate some feedback... am I missing something? could I explain things better? anything constructive is welcome. I'm sure some of my explanations are incorrect especially with regard to segwit, transactions, etc... any help is appreciated. Each class is 20 people and it's looking like there will be 4-6 classes based on current demand.
syllabus:
a) What is bitcoin?
b) Why does Bitcoin have value?
c) Parts of bitcoin/terms to know:
d) Interesting things about bitcoin:
e) How to buy/sell:
f) Who takes bitcoin?
g) How to keep bitcoins safe:
h) problems and solutions ahead for BTC
submitted by comp21 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Why the high cost of protecting against a 51% attack makes proof of work unsustainable.

Let's do the math for a moment.
Right now, the network consists of 2,369,000 GH/s.
If we go by KNC miner and Bitfury's mining products, we can say that a cautious estimate would be that we require about 1 watt per hour for every GH/s. This is not yet the case, as people are still using older less efficient Bitcoin miners, but we can sustain the present mining difficulty at 1 watt per GH/s.
The average price Americans pay is 12 cents per kilowatt-hour (which is 1000 watt per hour).
Thus, we can calculate the price of the network per hour as following:
2,369,000 watt per hour / 1000 = 2369 kWh.
2369 kWh x 0.12 = 284.28 dollar per hour.
We have on average 2491 transactions per hour right now, according to Bitcoin charts.
Thus the price of a single Bitcoin transaction right now can be as low as 284.28 / 2491 = 0.1141 dollar.
Compare this to an earlier, 2011 estimate. Back then, the average price for a transaction was $4,20 dollar. So, there has been some progress in this regards.
However, in reality we are paying the miners a subsidy, in the form of the block reward, which reduces the value of our Bitcoin, and has to be included in the calculations. The current block reward is 25 bitcoin. If we assume 6 blocks are mined per hour, this means that we pay miners 150 bitcoin per hour. With one bitcoin valued at 150 dollar, this means we pay 22,500 dollar per hour in "mining subsidies" to protect against a 51% attack.
22500 + 284.28 = 22784.28 dollar per hour, paid to sustain the network. Divide this by 2491 transactions, and we pay 9.14 dollar per transaction.
This is all meant to sustain the present difficulty level, and encourage investment in Bitcoin mining.
The problem is that the block reward won't be sustained forever. Every transaction on the Bitcoin network has to pay a transaction fee, which is required due the price it costs us to protect the network against a 51% attack.
The bigger problem we have is that a 51% attack funds itself. After all, the same reward that is paid to legitimate miners is paid to an attacker. Thus, engaging in a 51% attack would only cost the attacker money when mining itself costs him money.
This is made worse that a 51% attack can pay for itself in the form of a price crash. A man who engages in a 51% attack can bet on the price of Bitcoin to collapse, for example, by selling bitcoin short.
Our insurance against 51% attacks is very expensive right now, and we're not even sure whether our current difficulty is high enough. The problem is that this problem won't be solved by an increase in use of Bitcoin, because an increase in Bitcoin use increases the financial reward to be gained from a 51% attack.
This is why Bitcoin is valued at a low price right now. We don't know whether the network is capable of paying for the 51% insurance required to keep the network secure.
The solution to this may be found in the form of responsive mining. In the scenario of responsive mining, people only start mining blocks when there is a threat of a 51% attack. It's the equivalent of only hiring bodyguards when you think you may get shot.
However, the problem is that responsive mining is still a tragedy of the commons situation. When we see indicators of an upcoming 51% attack, we all expect each other to start mining, but if there is no profit to be made in protecting the network against the 51% attack, we will have no direct incentive to insure the network.
The solution to this could be argued to be proof of stake. Under proof of stake, anyone who mines would be forced to prove that he owns a significant amount of Bitcoin. Therefore, the miner would likely lose more money by attacking Bitcoin than he gains by betting on its downfall.
Quoting from the Bitcoin Wiki:
In a competitive market equilibrium, the total volume of txn fees must be equal to opportunity cost of all resources used to verify txns. Under proof-of-work mining, opportunity cost can be calculated as the total sum spent on mining electricity, mining equipment depreciation, mining labor, and a market rate of return on mining capital. Electricity costs, returns on mining equipment, and equipment depreciation costs are likely to dominate here. If these costs are not substantial, then it will be exceptionally easy to monopolize the mining network. The fees necessary to prevent monopolization will be onerous, possibly in excess of the 3% fee currently charged for credit card purchases.
My fear is that with every block-halving the difficulty is going to decline, and the incentive to engage in a 51% attack will increase, which would permanently destroy Bitcoin's credibility and encourage people to step over to an alternative cryptocurrency.
We may require a hard fork to implement a more sophisticated protection against a 51% attack, rather than "waste a lot of energy coming up with solutions to difficult mathematical problems".
submitted by accountt1234 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Mining Algorithm Example Bitcoin Block Reward Halving  What is it, and why is it HUGE for BTC Buyers & Miners Bitcoin Madenciliği (GERÇEK KAZANÇ) - YouTube Leo Henry - YouTube What Bitcoin Miners Actually Do

The Bitcoin block mining reward halves every 210,000 blocks, the coin reward will decrease from 25 to 12.5 coins; Reward-Drop ETA date: 09 Jul 2016. This might partly be compensated by falling difficulty, raising prices, higher transfer fees, etc. A mining computer generates a lot of heat as a byproduct. This can impact your heating ... Miner Calculator Powered by CryptoRival. Cryptocurrency Prices. Search for: About Us My Name is Ghulam Ahmed. I have been working on bitcoin cryptocurrency in Pakistan since the past three years. Now I am the top seller in Pakistan and have many clients from different countries of Mining hardware. Me and My team members specialize in stable ... Authentication of committed transactions with the help of Bitcoin math algorithms. Create an additional amount of cryptocurrency per turnover as a reward for Bitcoin miners. How much a miner earns. Bitcoin miners get a block reward. It means that the profit for the operation comes when the block is completed. Today payout per transaction is 12.5 coins. This indicator periodically decreases ... As part of Bitcoin's coin issuance, miners are rewarded a certain amount of bitcoins whenever a block is produced (approximately every 10 minutes). When Bitcoin first started, 50 Bitcoins per block were given as a reward to miners. After every 210,000 blocks are mined (approximately every 4 years), the block reward halves and will keep on halving until the block reward per block becomes 0 ... Bitcoin mining is the process of securing and validation Bitcoin transactions on the Bitcoin blockchain. Find out what your expected return is depending on your hash rate and electricity cost. Find out if it's profitable to mine Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, DASH or Monero. Do you think you've got what it takes to join the tough world of cryptocurrency mining? Bitcoin Fee Estimator / Calculator ...

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Bitcoin Mining Algorithm Example

In other words, if the Bitcoin network’s computing power is at 100, and one miner’s power is at 10, he stands a 10 percent chance of winning the block reward. Follow us on: Huobi Pro Exchange ... Bitcoin miners solve math problems and are issued bitcoins in exchange for the effort involved. This provides an incentive for mining as well as a smart way to circulate new currency. The miners ... Is Bitcoin (BTC) Mining Profitable in 2019? Bitcoin Mining estimation using Mining Calculator For Bitcoin Mining Malaysia. When the bitcoin miner manufacturer, Bitmain, first released its latest ... Bitcoin is now halving for the third time, on May 11th, 2020. The block reward halving is HUGE for buyers and miners of BTC, find out why! Subscribe to VoskCoin for more Bitcoin videos - http ... For more information: https://www.bitcoinmining.com and https://www.weusecoins.com What is Bitcoin Mining? Have you ever wondered how Bitcoin is generated? T...

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